🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.