🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the leader would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the hours before Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. One account, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Platform data shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the market's assessment had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment just before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other platform users also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are growing concerned. A bill put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the United States, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to political events. The industry were examined under the Biden administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting space. A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."